Robert Koch Colloquium, 19 May 2025
Sebastian Funk
https://epiforecasts.io
Models are a tool to combine data (what we know) with assumptions and theory (what we think) to learn about what we don’t know.
January 2020: Can COVID-19 be controlled by contact tracing?
Probability of control depends on intensity of transmission and contact tracing effort.
We illustrate the potential impact that flawed model inferences can have on public health policy with the model described […] by Joel Hellewell and colleagues, which is part of the scientific evidence informing the UK Government’s response to COVID-19.
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
George Box
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
Time series of case incidence.
Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) consultations in Germany.
Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) consultations in Germany.
Assess quality of models by how closely prediction matches reality
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Image from: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Humans were better than models at predicting cases, but not deaths
Any model of the future is a prediction and can be evaluated as such.
Collaboration with Robert Koch Institute / WHO Pandemic Hub.
An 80 % right paper before a policy decision is made it is worth ten 95 % right papers afterwards
Figure courtesy of Adam Kucharski
Initiatives to create and disseminate tools for predictable tasks.
Slides at